Popular Economics Weekly
The economy produced 292,000 jobs in the final month of 2015, the Labor Department said Friday. Pundits had predicted a 200,000 plus increase in nonfarm jobs. And because job creation exceeded their predictions, those pundits and some economists will say the Fed has to continue to raise their rates this year. But in spite of the good jobs numbers over the past 3 months—some 2.7 million jobs were created in 2015—there are still more than 7 million job seekers that can only find part time work or no work.
Employment gains in November and October were also considerably stronger, Labor Department revisions show. Some 252,000 new jobs were created in November instead of 211,000. October’s gain was raised to 307,000 from 298,000, marking the biggest increase of 2015.
But continuing to raise interest rates will only hurt economic growth, when real GDP growth is still in the 2 percent range. In fact, annual GDP growth has averaged just 2.21 percent since 2010, and been declining since 2000.
Why the slow growth? A major reason is the decline in household incomes since the 1970s that have barely kept up with inflation. Hourly pay has risen just 2.5 percent in the past 12 months, matching a six-and-a-half-year high—which isn’t very high. And that has hurt personal consumption—i.e., consumer spending—which hasn’t been able to rise enough to offset the other factors holding back growth—such as almost no government investment in R&D, and public infrastructure, seriously hurting economic productivity.
That’s because most jobs were created in the lower-paying service sector, while millions of higher-paying manufacturing jobs have migrated overseas. So most workers aren’t getting big bumps in their paychecks. Hourly pay usually rises at a 3 percent to 4 percent annual pace when the economy is really humming.
And that is the ‘real’ reason we have had almost non-existent inflation. It is the hourly pay of the 80 percent of non-supervisory workers that contribute two-thirds of product costs, and it is the direction of product costs that determine whether prices are rising (or falling).
In fact, the Fed should be signaling it wants inflation to rise to the 3 to 4 percent range, a sign that wages are finally rising beyond inflation. Because that would raise market interest rates that savers are calling for, without the Fed having to intervene.
Harlan Green © 2016
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