Full Employment Is Here, But No Inflation (Revised)

Financial FAQs

The Bureau of Labor’s JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey out Tuesday showed a huge boost in hiring and shrinkage of available jobs. What to make of it with almost nonexistent inflation, and the Fed’s Janet Yellen still making noises about raising interest rates?

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Graph: Marketwatch

Job openings fell back 5.0 percent to 5.666 million in May from 6 million, and hiring shot up 8.3 percent at 5.472 million from 5 million in April. So the number of net new job openings shrank from 1 million to a mere 194,000, while more than 400,000 new jobs were created! This is big news, and sets a record for this series while the number of job openings are the second lowest of the year.

Meanwhile, Janet Yellen can’t seem to make up her mind on the direction of economic growth in her latest congressional testimony. So she won’t commit to further rate hikes at the moment, which without growing inflation would slow growth, rather than be a sign of inflation (and growth) ahead.

“As I’ve said on many occasions, the new normal with respect to what level of interest rates is neutral appears to be rather low, so we have raised the federal-funds rate target. I believe policy remains accommodative.”

In what is one of the very weakest 4-month stretch in 60 years of records, says the Census Bureau, core consumer prices could manage only a 0.1 percent increase in June. This is the third straight 0.1 percent showing for the core (ex food & energy) that was preceded by the very rare 0.1 percent decline in March. Total prices were unchanged in the month with food neutral and energy down 1.6 percent.

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Graph: Econoday

The JOLTS report looks like employers’ job hirings are finally catching up with their job openings. Other movement in this report is a 1 tenth rise in the quits rate to 2.2 percent which hints perhaps at worker confidence and willingness to switch jobs which may be a positive for wage growth.

Such a strong jobs report should mean wages are about to rise, in other words. At least the Fed believes so, but it ain’t yet happening, no matter what Dr. Yellen says. Wages have been at 2.5 percent over the past 2 years; just enough to pay current bills, but not to boost retail sales, a major component of consumer spending, hence GDP growth.

Retail sales fell an unexpected 0.2 percent in June. This follows a revised 0.1 percent decline in May and a revised 0.3 percent gain for April which proved to be the quarter’s only respectable showing.

Econoday says it “…shows wide weakness with vehicle sales coming in with a marginal 0.1 percent increase, the same for furniture and also electronics & appliances. Declines include food & beverage stores, down a sharp 0.4 percent, and department stores down 0.7 percent following the prior month’s 0.8 percent plunge.”

So where is the inflation? Economic growth is still weak because demand is weak, and maybe declining. This is worrisome.

Today’s CPI retail inflation report should convince Dr. Yellen that no further Fed rate hikes are warranted. Annual inflation has increased just 1.6 percent; 1.7 percent without volatile food and energy prices. And we have June’s unemployment report with 222,000 new payroll jobs, another sign of full employment. (It is seasonally adjusted, which is why it differs from the JOLTS numbers.)

Then there is the fact that interest rates aren’t rising.  The 10-year Treasury yield is still at 2.26 percent, which would normally signal an incoming recession.  Let us hope not, since there are still jobs available and we have to first see wages rising!

Harlan Green © 2017

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

About populareconomicsblog

Harlan Green is editor/publisher of PopularEconomics.com, and content provider of 3 weekly columns to various blogs--Popular Economics Weekly and The Huffington Post
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